Hey, thanks for sharing my piece about AI & productivity. I wouldn't quite say that forecasts are of no use. I think that they become problematic when they're overly specific. "AI will increase productivity because of factors a, b, c..." is, I think, reasonable. "AI will increase productivity by 5.67% over the next 5 years, and 10.7% in perpetuity thereafter" is...useless. A forecast should indicate general trends, or directional arrows of progress (to use Josh Wolfe's phrase).
You're welcome, Dave. I agree with your commentary on the forecasts. While it's okay to predict future trends based on current sentiments, it will rarely be enough to make very specific claims, like the one you just mentioned. You viewed the forecasts from an objective lens and I'm glad I could share that pov with this community.
Keep up the good work! Thanks!
Hey, thanks for sharing my piece about AI & productivity. I wouldn't quite say that forecasts are of no use. I think that they become problematic when they're overly specific. "AI will increase productivity because of factors a, b, c..." is, I think, reasonable. "AI will increase productivity by 5.67% over the next 5 years, and 10.7% in perpetuity thereafter" is...useless. A forecast should indicate general trends, or directional arrows of progress (to use Josh Wolfe's phrase).
You're welcome, Dave. I agree with your commentary on the forecasts. While it's okay to predict future trends based on current sentiments, it will rarely be enough to make very specific claims, like the one you just mentioned. You viewed the forecasts from an objective lens and I'm glad I could share that pov with this community.
Yes, it'll be interesting to see how large enterprises with loads of data leverage it to build better AI.